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Tuesday, April 19, 2011

25 Bubble Shows — Which Will Survive?

Will Chuck's luck finally run out? Is Season 8 the end of the road for One Tree Hill? Does Outsourced have a prayer for renewal? Just a few weeks remain before the networks decide which shows will and won't be back this fall. Are your favorites on the chopping block, or can you breathe an early sigh of relief? We offer an analysis of what's to come, so you can brace yourselves (looking at you No Ordinary Family fans, wherever you are) if things aren't looking so hot.


Fall TV scorecard: Which shows are returning? Which aren't?

$#*! My Dad Says (CBS)

Thursdays at 8:30/7:30c

The Good News: Despite negative critical response, the show debuted to 12.5 million viewers and held about 80 percent of The Big Bang Theory's audience.

The Bad News: In what is rarely a good sign, the show wrapped up its freshman season in a hurry in February to make room for new comedy (and fellow bubble show) Mad Love. Its final episode pulled in 9.8 million viewers and dumped 30 percent of Big Bang's lead-in.



Better With You (ABC)

Wednesdays at 8:30/7:30c

The Good News: ABC President Paul Lee has said he would like to create another comedy block on the network, which could pave the way for this consistent (if not blockbuster) sitcom to stick around.

The Bad News: It's currently a traditional-looking sitcom among quirkier, edgier single-camera comedies. Plus, Better With You's average rating in the adults-18-to-49 demo is hovering slightly below 2.0 — a number ABC may feel a new show could also achieve or, even better, surpass.



Body of Proof (ABC)

Tuesdays at 10/9c

The Good News: The show was ABC's second-highest rated drama debut this season, pulling in 13.9 million viewers. Also, Dana Delany is infinitely watchable, while many of ABC's other dramas are not.

The Bad News: The numbers sputtered when ABC did some stunt scheduling, airing an episode on Sunday after Delany's previous show, Desperate Housewives. (To be fair, the numbers for the show's normal Tuesday timeslot have stabilized.)



Brothers & Sisters (ABC)

Sundays at 10/9c

The Good News: After a healthy Season 5 debut, ABC ordered four more episodes of the family drama, quelling some concerns that the network was trying to get the show off its schedule ASAP.

The Bad News: The show's most recent episode, a two-hour event, averaged only 6.5 million viewers. The show has also been plagued by cast member departures as well as really bad (like, amnesia bad) story lines.


[UPDATED: CBS has pulled Chaos from the schedule.]

Chaos (CBS)

Fridays at 8/7c

The Good News: The show features a great cast that has excellent chemistry. Plus, the show is lighter than many of the gloomy procedural dramas on CBS.

The Bad News: The show's lighter tone perhaps doesn't appeal to CBS' core audience — only 6.4 million viewers watched the premiere episode. That number shrank to 5.6 million viewers during the most recent airing.



The Chicago Code (Fox)

Mondays at 9/8c

The Good News: Critics responded to the show's character-driven approach to the police procedural and to the show's creative pedigree, both behind (The Shield's Shawn Ryan) and in front of (Jennifer Beals, Delroy Lindo) the camera.

The Bad News: Like several Fox dramas (Lie to Me, Human Target), the show pulls consistent but less than exciting numbers. (The show averages 7.5 million viewers an episode). Fox isn't likely to carry all of the slumping dramas another year.



Chuck (NBC)

Mondays at 8/7c

The Good News: Fans willing to eat large quantities of Subway sandwiches have saved the show before.

The Bad News: Has Chuck ever not been on the bubble? Viewership has seen some erosion in recent weeks (down to a series low in the demo), and four seasons seems like plenty (for the non-nerds among us).



Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior (CBS)

Wednesdays at 10/9c

The Good News: CBS loves creating franchises, and this spin-off, which airs back-to-back with its mothership, easily wins its timeslot on a regular basis.

The Bad News: Fans haven't exactly responded positively to the ensemble, led by Oscar winner Forest Whitaker. The show suffered a steep if predictable decline in viewership after its initial airing. The show has since stabilized, averaging 9 to 10 million viewers, but that's still well off Criminal Minds: Original Flavor's 13 million average.


CSI: NY (CBS)

Fridays at 9/8c

The Good News: The veteran drama's move to Friday nights bolstered rookie cop drama Blue Bloods with a solid lead-in, and Blue Bloods became a bona fide CBS hit.

The Bad News: Blue Bloods now regularly draws a bigger audience than CSI: NY. Although the show performs solidly for a Friday night, CBS can be rather ruthless, even with shows that have a dedicated fan base. This one will most certainly depend on what CBS' development slate looks like.



The Defenders (CBS)

Fridays at 8/7c

The Good News: Jim Belushi and Jerry O'Connell make a charming pair of leads. (We're surprised as you are.)

The Bad News: The show was CBS' lowest-rated drama of the season. At midseason, it was bumped to Friday, where it burned off the end of its freshman run, averaging a little more than 8 million viewers per episode.



Detroit 1-8-7 (ABC)

Tuesdays at 10/9c

The Good News: It scored big points with critics who, along with the roughly 6 million viewers who watched it each week, were drawn to the show's NYPD Blue-esque balance of character stories and police procedure.

The Bad News: Besides the two freshman dramas ABC has already canceled, this was ABC's lowest-rated hour this season.



The Event (NBC)

Mondays at 9/8c

The Good News: Has there ever been good news for this show? Its mysterious concept — and by mysterious, we mean wannabe-Lost — seemed to buy it a decent premiere audience (11 million viewers).

The Bad News: After a hiatus meant to fix all the creative problems — read: make the show not boring — viewers are still MIA. The first episode back after the overhaul drew just 5.2 million viewers, a number that has continued to decline in recent weeks.



Human Target (Fox)

Wednesdays at 9/8c

The Good News: It's not a bad show! Its ratings aren't horrible. And it's better than the other lightweight superhero show, No Ordinary Family.

The Bad News: Unfortunately, it's got the same amount of buzz (read: none). Also, like The Event and V, a creative re-launch in Season 2 did not budge already lukewarm ratings.


Law & Order: Los Angeles (NBC)

Mondays at 10/9c

The Good News: It's been two decades since there wasn't a Law & Order franchise on NBC. And the newest entry just added Law & Order vet Alana de la Garza to its already star-studded cast (Alfred Molina, Terrence Howard).

The Bad News: There's already Special Victims Unit, a better (and higher-rated) show carrying the Law & Order torch for NBC. Also, the buzzed-about re-launch of the show after an extended hiatus drew only 5.4 million viewers.



Lie to Me (Fox)

Mondays at 9/8c

The Good News: Fox obviously believes in the show, as it's been rescued from the bubble the past two seasons. Plus, Fox is planning to air repeats of the show this summer.

The Bad News: The show has been on the bubble for two seasons, which may mean it's time for Fox to move on. The network would seemingly be justified: The third season, which didn't receive a back nine pickup, averaged just under 6 million viewers an episode.



Mad Love (CBS)

Mondays at 8:30/7:30c

The Good News: It kind of goes well with its How I Met Your Mother lead-in, and we love the cast (Sarah Chalke, Judy Greer, Tyler Labine and Jason Biggs).

The Bad News: It doesn't hold a lot of those Mother viewers, and it arrived after the playing field was filled with similar relationship comedies (Perfect Couples, Better with You, Traffic Light, Happy Endings).



Mr. Sunshine (ABC)

Wednesdays at 9:30/8:30c

The Good News: Matthew Perry and Allison Janney back on prime time? Yes, please! ABC's also considering a second comedy block, which may be its saving grace because...

The Bad News: ... American Idol squashed it like a little bug. And even before that, it wasn't doing so hot ratings-wise, especially not after its Modern Family lead-in.



Nikita (CW)

Thursdays at 9/8c

The Good News: The well-acted spy drama is retaining a healthy number of viewers from its Vampire Diaries lead-in. It's also doing significantly better than CW elder statesmen Gossip Girl, 90210 and One Tree Hill.

The Bad News: It doesn't really feel like a CW show, right? It feels — no offense to Maggie Q and Shane West — older. Can the show grow its audience on the network?



No Ordinary Family (ABC)

Tuesdays at 8/7c

The Good News: Not much, er...none. We're not going to lie. This show is a goner.

The Bad News: No Ordinary Family was never able to muster even some of the passion sci-fi fans exhibited for the once-great Heroes. Stars Michael Chiklis and Julie Benz see the writing on the wall too — both are starring in other pilots up for consideration this fall.



Off the Map (ABC)

Wednesdays at 10/9c

The Good News: Shonda Rhimes is on board as an executive producer and the show is very similar, and about as good, as her other hits Grey's Anatomy and Private Practice.

The Bad News: In spite of the Rhimes pedigree (note: she does not serve as showrunner), ratings ain't great. How not great? A recent episode of Grey's drew 13 million viewers, while Off the Map drew 3.8 million. Looks grim. Hope you're not attached.



One Tree Hill (CW)

Tuesdays at 8/7c

The Good News: It's the teen drama that never dies! A perennial bubble show, it's beaten the odds every time, without a fraction of the media attention CW siblings Gossip Girl and Vampire Diaries have drawn.

The Bad News: It's eight seasons old, it isn't a press darling, and CW has a handful of promising pilots waiting to take its spot.



Outsourced (NBC)

Thursdays at 10:30/9:30c

The Good News: Um, NBC ordered a full season of the show, even expanding to a three-hour comedy block on Thursdays?

The Bad News: Almost universally panned by critics for being racially insensitive, it's the lowest-rated comedy in NBC's Thursday lineup.



Perfect Couples (NBC)

Thursdays at 8:30/7:30c

The Good News: Olivia Munn has The Daily Show with Jon Stewart to fall back on?

The Bad News: NBC swapped it out for the lukewarm The Paul Reiser Show this month. This show is basically dead.



Rules of Engagement (CBS)

Thursdays at 8:30/7:30c

The Good News: Season 5 marked the first time in two seasons that the show premiered in the fall. The show also took over the coveted post-Big Bang Theory spot once $#*! My Dad Says ended its run.

The Bad News: The show's average audience of 8.6 million viewers an episode is the lowest in its history. But the show pulls consistent numbers, which could be important to the network's comedy plans if CBS fails to figure out a way to carry on with Two and a Half Men.



V (ABC)

Tuesdays at 9/8c

The Good News: The reboot ended on a high: The gory, twist-filled season finale was the series' best effort to date (kudos to the ballsy cliff-hanger), and it could rev up fans to launch a series-saving campaign.

The Bad News: The episode was seen by just 5.5 million viewers (a far cry from the 14 million who watched the series launch) and may have arrived too late.

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